Wess Mitchell Interviewed on War on the Rocks Podcast
War on the Rocks | War on the Rocks founder Ryan Evans interviews Wess Mitchell about sequencing in U.S. strategy..........
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Edward Luttwak
Dr. Edward N. Luttwak is a Distinguished Adjunct Fellow at The Marathon Initiative, a policy initiative focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition.
Previously, Luttwak has served on U.S. presidential transition teams, testified before committees of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate, and has advised the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. National Security Council, the White House Chief of Staff, and several allied governments, including Japan.
Luttwak is the author of several books, including Coup d’état: A Practical Handbook (Penguin, 1968), which derived from his work as a London-based oil consultant; The Israeli Army, with Dan Horowitz (Allen Lane, 1975); The Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire (Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976), which derived from his Ph. D. dissertation; The Pentagon and The Art Of War: The Question Of Military Reform (Simon & Schuster, 1985), which was a cited source of the 1986 Defense Reorganization Act; Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace (Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1987), which is widely assigned in professional military education programs; Turbo-Capitalism: Winners and Losers in the Global Economy (HarperCollins, 1999), which introduced the concept of geo-economics, the logic of war in the grammar of commerce; The Grand Strategy of the Byzantine Empire (Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2009); and, most recently, The Rise of China vs. The Logic of Strategy (Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2012), which derived from a study for the U.S. Government. His books have been published in Arabic, Bahasa Indonesia, Danish, Dutch, Estonian, Finnish, French, German, Greek, Hebrew, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Mandarin Mongolian, Norwegian, Polish, Portuguese Lisbon, Portuguese São Paulo, Romanian, Russian, Spanish, and Turkish.
Luttwak was born in Arad, Romania and raised in Italy and England. He is an alumnus of London School of Economics (B.S.) and Johns Hopkins University (Ph.D.). From 1967-1972, he was a volunteer and then military contractor for the Israel Defense Forces. In 1975, he was retained as a strategic consultant to the immediate Office of the Secretary of Defense under James R. Schlesinger. Luttwak was made a U.S. citizen by Act of Congress, H.R. 2550, 95th Congress, January 26, 1977.
Luttwak established and supervises a conservation ranch in the Bolivian Amazon. He lives in Chevy Chase, Maryland.
Work
The State Department Overhaul Is Long Overdue
Foreign Policy | The State Department is in urgent need of reform. Over the past three decades, it has expanded its remit into countless functions and causes that are well outside its core mission. This is not just an inefficient use of taxpayer resources.........
America is overextended. Here’s a better way forward.
Washington Post | “ The “simultaneity problem,” as it’s known in military circles, has been the most serious grand strategic challenge facing the United States for some time now.”........
Wess Mitchell Quoted in The New Yorker
The New Yorker | “I don’t share the fear of some Europeans that the United States is out to abandon them, but if that fear leads them to finally take defense more seriously, then maybe it’s not a bad thing. I’ve yet to see anything else that works.”........
The Return of Great-Power Diplomacy: How Strategic Dealmaking Can Fortify American Power
Foreign Affairs | After the end of the Cold War, the United States moved away from using negotiations to promote the national interest. .......
Strategic Sequencing, Revisited
Internasjonalt Forum | Interview with Elbridge Colby: An exclusive interview that the head of the editorial committee, Ciwan Can, conducted with Elbridge Colby about how a possible victory for Donald Trump could affect the war in Ukraine and security in Europe. ........
CSDS Brussels: Roundtable
Centre for Security, Diplomacy, and Strategy | Dr. Mitchell spoke at the Brussels School of Governance about how great powers use diplomacy throughout history in a talk titled "Skillful Statecraft Across the Ages."....
How Biden Let Europe Slip Away
Wall Street Journal | On trade, defense and energy, Washington has failed to shore up the trans-Atlantic alliance.......
Interview: Asahi Shimbun
Asahi Shimbun | Wess Mitchell sits down with Kayoko Geji of Asahi Shimbun to discuss the war in Ukraine and the future of security in Europe and the Indo-Pacific theaters......
U.S. Strategy Should Be Europe First, Then Asia
Foreign Policy | Without a secure Europe, the United States risks becoming a hemispheric potentate on the margins of the world....
The Geopolitical Opportunity of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive
Foreign Policy | Soil is the single most important leverage that Ukraine can amass, more valuable than sanctions relief or other economic incentives to Russia. ......
China’s “New” Diplomacy: Opportunities for American Statecraft
The Marathon Initiative | The People’s Republic of China has embarked on an ambitious diplomatic campaign to increase its influence in strategically-vital regions and burnish its credentials as a great power of global reach.…......
5 Rules for Superpowers Facing Multiple Conflicts
Foreign Policy | While the debate rages about how to handle what’s happening in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia, it may be worth pausing to consider the situation from a historical perspective......
America Is a Heartbeat Away From a War It Could Lose
Foreign Policy | Global war is neither a theoretical contingency nor the fever dream of hawks and militarists.....
27th Annual Economist Government Roundtable – Keynote Remarks
The Marathon Initiative | There are now major conflicts in two of the world’s three most important regions. We are in the early phases of what could become the world crisis of our time.…......
Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Dawn of Great Power Competition
Heritage Foundation | On this episode, Peter is joined by Wess Mitchell, co-founder and principal of the Marathon Initiative who previously served as Assistant Secretary of State for Europe from 2017-2019....
NATO’s Next Decade: Nine thinkers assess the alliance’s future ahead of a historic summit.
Foreign Policy | "NATO’s 2022 Strategic Concept took an important first step by recognizing China as a security challenge, but now the alliance needs to translate that into concrete actions.......
Western Europe Is Still Falling Short in NATO’s East
Foreign Affairs | Although the war has done a lot to get western Europe serious about defense, NATO remains bound by many of the same old self-created constraints......
Wess Mitchell Quoted in Bloomberg
Bloomberg | “There’s no question that Putin has been weakened,” Wess Mitchell, a former US assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia and cofounder of two think tanks, said in an interview........
Getting Strategic Deprioritization Right
The Marathon Initiative | Project prepared for the Office of Net Assessment, United States Department of Defense. Published with approval from the Office of Net Assessment.…......
A Drawn-Out Ukraine War Should Not Change U.S. Strategy
Foreign Policy | "Sequencing remains the best strategy for the United States to handle the two-front challenge from China and Russia. Helping Ukraine to defeat Russia by ejecting it from its territory is the best way to pursue such a strategy.".....
Why Biden’s China Reset Is a Bad Idea
Foreign Policy | "Now is not the time for the United States to pursue détente with China, as the Biden administration has been trying to do for several weeks now."....
‘The Twilight Struggle’ Review: Welcome to the New Cold War
Wall Street Journal | Today America once again finds itself at the onset of a new era of geopolitical rivalry, this time with a rising China and a vengeful Russia.......
Wess Mitchell Interviewed on WBUR
WBUR | "It's startling the change in public outlook in these countries," Wess Mitchell, former assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia, says. "And the calculation is that if they don't come into NATO, they're worried that they could be a tempting target."..........
The Case for Ukrainian Neutrality
Foreign Affairs | While neutrality would carry risks, it need not be a death sentence for Ukraine. It may, in fact, be the best possible outcome, given where things stand after more than three weeks of war..........
To Prevent China from Grabbing Taiwan, Stop Russia in Ukraine
The National Interest | The quickest way to motivate Xi Jinping to invade Taiwan would be to fail to deal decisively with Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine..............
Putin United the West—but Now Comes the Hard Part
Foreign Policy | Security will require painful trade-offs Western governments may not be ready to make.............
The U.S. Isn’t Going to Fight in Ukraine, But There’s Much More It Can Do to Help
Time Magazine | In Ukraine, we have an opportunity to return the favor but in aid to a brutally besieged people whose cause could not be more just............
Wess Mitchell Interviewed in Limes (Italy)
Limes | Former assistant secretary of state Wess Mitchell sits down with Italian geopolitical magazine, Limes...........
Wess Mitchell Interviewed in Echo24
Echo24 | nder Donald Trump, Wess Mitchell was the top official in Europe at the State Department. Today, he works in a think-tank that profiles itself on the turn to Asia. But now war has broken out in Europe in the terrain he knows........
Wess Mitchell Interviewed on Sveriges Radio
Sveriges Radio | The defense alliance has been tested, but after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO countries have stood shoulder to shoulder. Wess Mitchell joins Sweden's national public radio........
For America, Putin’s Invasion Is a Strategic Opportunity
Foreign Policy | The impending Russian invasion of Ukraine offers an unexpected opportunity for the United States to deal decisively with Russia in a way that also advances U.S. strategic objectives in Asia........
Wess Mitchell Interviewed on Sky News
Sky News | Russia-Ukraine tensions have "the potential to escalate into a global security crisis... of the kind we haven't seen in many decades", says Dr. Wess Mitchell, former Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs........
Wess Mitchell Interviewed on Global Demons (FPRI)
Foreign Policy Research Institute | How will the European Union keep up in a world of great power rivalry? In this episode of Global Demons, Robert Kaplan is joined by Wess Mitchell to discuss Europe’s past, present, and future.......
Wess Mitchell Interviewed by The Reagan Institute
The Reagan Institute | Roger Zakheim and Wess Mitchell discuss the recent Russian military buildup along Ukraine's border and the Biden Administration's response......
A Habsburg to Be Reckoned With: Two Books on Maria Theresa
The Wall Street Journal | When the young empress came suddenly to power, European rivals prepared for her quick defeat. They were mistaken......
Biden’s Climate Diplomacy Is a Gift to China
Foreign Policy | U.S. President Joe Biden’s climate diplomacy with China is rooted in the fantasy that Washington can turn Beijing into a constructive global partner simply by treating it like one.....
Mastering the Multi-Front Challenge: The Diplomatic Strategies of Metternich and Bismarck
The Marathon Initiative | This paper examines how the 19th Century European statesmen Klemens von Metternich and Otto von Bismarck dealt with the problem of multi-front competition in grand strategy.......
Wess Mitchell Quoted in The Economist
The Economist | But such bilateral deals are bad news for nato, says Wess Mitchell, an American former state department official who co-chaired a reflection group for the alliance last year......
Wess Mitchell Quoted in Bloomberg
Bloomberg Quint | “For all of Biden’s rhetoric about not being Trump, once he gets into office the reality is we have to make decisions that our allies may not like, and that doesn’t go away just because he shows up and proclaims this nirvana moment,”......
A Strategy for Avoiding Two-Front War
The National Interest | The greatest risk facing the twenty-first-century United States, short of an outright nuclear attack, is a two-front war involving its strongest military rivals, .....
Biden Is Falling Into the Same Trap With Europe as Obama
Foreign Policy | In reality, U.S. ties with many European allies don’t need resuscitation. In fact, many of these relationships significantly improved under Trump following years of neglect under the Obama administration.....
Wess Mitchell testifies before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on NATO 2030
House Foreign Affairs Committee | TMI Principal Wess Mitchell reflects on strengthening the transatlantic alliance in his testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee #NATO2030.......
The Curzonian imprint on Indian foreign policy
Hindustan Times | Lord Curzon’s conceptualisation of India’s neighbourhood and emphasis on frontiers and integration is still relevant and can serve as a template for both India and India-US partnership....
Wess Mitchell quoted in The Economist
The Economist | Even so, the geopolitics of Europe and Asia are unavoidably entwined, not least because America’s national defence strategy in 2018 explicitly discarded the requirement that the country be able to fight two wars at the same time.......
Wess Mitchell quoted in Neue Zuericher Zeitung
Neue Zuericher Zeitung | Wess Mitchell zieht in der NZZ erstmals Bilanz über seine Zeit als führender Europa-Politiker unter dem ehemaligen amerikanischen Präsidenten.....
Wess Mitchell Featured in Reservistenverband
Reservistenverband | In knapp einer Woche kommen die Staats- und Regierungschefs der 30 NATO-Staaten zum Gipfeltreffen zusammen......
Panel: Konrad Adenauer Stiftung – Wess Mitchell
Konrad Adenauer Stiftung | What challenges will NATO face in the future? How does it have to change? A group of experts convened by the NATO Secretary General dealt with these and many other questions last year and published a report on them....
Wess Mitchell Quoted in Bloomberg
Bloomberg | Biden’s team can no longer “treat success as not being Trump,” said Wess Mitchell, who served as assistant secretary of state for Europe in the Trump administration...
Wess Mitchell Interviewed in Small Wars Journal
Small Wars Journal | Interview with Dr. A. Wess Mitchell, co-chair of the NATO 2030 Reflection Process....
Biden Team’s Embrace of Europe Falls Short on Content
Foreign Policy | U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s inaugural trip to Europe last week is being hailed as a soothing restoration of the trans-Atlantic alliance....
NATO: India’s Next Geopolitical Destination
Hindustan Times | When the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) leaders meet later this year, they will debate the recommendations from a group of experts (which I co-chaired) that advocates, among other things...
NATO Needs to Deal With China Head-On
Foreign Policy | The Western alliance is unprepared to counter the direct and growing challenge from Beijing....
Wess Mitchell quoted in Foreign Policy magazine
Foreign Policy | Five former officials from the Trump and George W. Bush administrations share their foreign-policy advice for the new team.....
NATO Must Adapt for a Dangerous New Era
Internationale Politik Quarterly | The North Atlantic Alliance has a once-in-a-generation opportunity to make much-needed changes and reinvent itself as the central strategic platform for transatlantic cooperation...
Panel: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V. – Wess Mitchell
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V. | In March 2020, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg appointed a group of experts to support his work on a forward-looking “reflection process” to further strengthen the political dimension of the alliance. ...
Panel: Wilson Center – Wess Mitchell
Wilson Center | Former German Defense Minister Thomas de Maizière and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Wess Mitchell in conversation with Dan Hamilton about their independent Reflection Group report "NATO 2030: United for a New Era."...
Wess Mitchell Quoted in The Wall Street Journal
Wall Street Journal | In March 2019, Xi Jinping flew to Paris to meet French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the then-president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker...
Panel: Center for a New American Security – Wess Mitchell
CNAS | Wess Mitchell joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on a special, live episode of Brussels Sprouts to discuss the “NATO 2030” report’s findings on the future of the NATO Alliance...
Panel: Center for European Policy Analysis – Wess Mitchell
CEPA | At a moment in which NATO is more indispensable than ever to protect Allies’ security and democratic way of life, the NATO Reflection Group’s report "NATO 2030: United for a New Era" presents a roadmap for how the Alliance can adapt together to address the evolving strategic environment over the next decade...
Under what conditions will we open to Russia
Limes Online | The first is certainly linked to its military equipment. Russia is the first nuclear power in the world , it has a modern atomic arsenal of about 6,000 warheads, therefore capable of destroying the planet several times.....
Wess Mitchell Quoted in Washington Post
Washington Post |
“Most Europeans know that beneath the headlines of European euphoria on Biden, the U.S. and Europe still have significant differences of interest that cannot be waved away,” said A. Wess Mitchell, a former assistant secretary of state for European Affairs. He cited long-standing U.S. opposition to a natural gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, the U.S. push for Europeans to spend more on defense and an uneven playing field in trade....
Wess Mitchell Interviewed in la Repubblica
la Repubblica | from our correspondent Alberto D'Argenio BRUSSELS - NATO is alive and well, but it has to adapt to new challenges.....
Wess Mitchell Quoted in The Wall Street Journal
Wall Street JournalThe North Atlantic Treaty Organization should devote much more of its time and resources to security threats posed by China even while seeking to deter Russian aggression, a high-level assessment of the alliance’s future says in a report to be made public Tuesday....
Wess Mitchell Quoted in The New York Times
New York TimesAfter France’s president said NATO was suffering “brain death,” the alliance sought advice on how to stay vibrant as it faces new challenges from Russia and China.....
NATO 2030: United for a New Era
NATO | At the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Meeting of Heads of State and Government in London in December 2019, Alliance leaders asked the NATO Secretary General...
Should U.S. Foreign Policy Focus on Great-Power Competition?
Foreign Affairs | We at Foreign Affairs have recently published a number of pieces on great-power competition. To complement these articles, we decided to ask a broad pool of experts for their take...
Strategic Sequencing: How Great Powers Avoid Multi-Front War
The Marathon Initiative | This paper examines how four great powers in history have handled simultaneity…...
Wess Mitchell, Elbridge Colby Quoted in The Atlantic
The Atlantic | Last week, more than 70 Republican foreign-policy officials, including two from the Trump administration,....
Wess Mitchell Featured in The Wall Street Journal (Book Review)
The Wall Street Journal | Zbigniew Brzezinski used to tell the story of how his mother would bake a cake every year to mark the birthday of the Habsburg emperor Franz Joseph....
Containing China Will Be Complicated
WSJ Opinion | The Covid-19 pandemic has convinced many that the U.S. must fundamentally change its policy toward China....
Central Europe’s China Reckoning
The American Interest | Central Europeans are about to find out what it means to be dependent on Xi Jinping. For years, capitals across Europe’s eastern frontier have welcomed Chinese investment, inking deals...
Emperor Joseph’s Solution to Coronavirus
The Wall Street Journal | As countries around the world frantically erect barriers against the spread of the novel coronavirus, it might be helpful to look at one of the most successful...
Covid-19 is a chance for the U.S. and Europe to unite on China
The Washington Post | The United States and Europe should use the covid-19 epidemic as an opportunity to form a more united front in dealing with China...
Conservatives and Geopolitical Change
National Review | What is the conservative to do,” Henry Kissinger asked in an essay in 1954, “in a revolutionary situation?” In a stable order, conservatism is in a sense...
The Age of Great-Power Competition
Foreign Affairs | U.S. foreign policy is, by most accounts, in disarray. Headlines—including in these pages—proclaim the death of global American leadership. Famous...
The Middle East in an Era of Great Power Competition, Hoover Institute
Hoover Institution | In 1920, a young Winston Churchill wrote a memorandum to the Cabinet outlining his concerns about British policy in the Middle East...
The Grand Strategy of the Habsburg Empire
Princeton University Press | The Habsburg Empire's grand strategy for outmaneuvering and outlasting stronger rivals in a complicated geopolitical world...
Rethinking Metternich, Standpoint Magazine
Standpoint Magazine | “The historian is not yet born,” the Austrian state chancellor Clemens Wenzel von Metternich complained in 1829, “who will describe the numerous events....
The Unquiet Frontier: Rising Rivals, Vulnerable Allies, and the Crisis of American Power
Princeton University Press | The Unquiet Frontier: Rising Rivals, Vulnerable Allies, and the Crisis of American Power. How America's vulnerable frontier allies—and American power—are being targeted by rival nations
Additional Articles
- Predators on the Frontier, The American Interest, February 12, 2016 https://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/02/12/predators-on-the-frontier/
- The Case for Deterrence by Denial, The American Interest, August 12, 2015 https://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/08/12/the-case-for-deterrence-by-denial/
- Why Ukraine Can’t Be a Buffer State, Europe’s Edge, February 20, 2015
- A Preclusive Strategy to Defend the NATO Frontier, The American Interest, December 2, 2014 https://www.the-american-interest.com/2014/12/02/a-preclusive-strategy-to-defend-the-nato-frontier/
- Salami Slicing and Deterrence, The American Interest, November 18, 2014 https://www.the-american-interest.com/
- Limited War is Back, The National Interest, August 2014 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/limited-war-back-11128?page=0%2C1
- An American Strategy for Crimea, Polish Institute of International Affairs, March 3, 2014 https://cepa.ecms.pl/index/?id=276d18b2db1978d562fa17920c57977f
- The Future of U.S. Policy in Central Europe, Aspen Review Central Europe, December 2013 https://www.aspen.review/
- Atlanticism in Retreat, The American Interest, November 2013 https://www.the-american-interest.com/2013/10/10/atlanticism-in-retreat/
- America Needs its Frontline Allies Now More Than Ever, Wall Street Journal, July 5, 2013 https://www.wsj.com/
- The Vulnerability of Peripheries, The American Interest, February 2011 the-american-interest.com/2011/03/01/the-vulnerability-of-peripheries/
- Central Europe Outlook 2011: New Confidence, Looming Choices, Central Europe Digest, February 1, 2011
- Growing U.S.-Central European Ties, International Herald Tribune, April 6, 2010 https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/07/opinion/07iht-edbrzezinski.html
- American ‘Decline’ Tested on Periphery First, Realclearworld, March 22, 2010 (co-author) https://www.realclearworld.com/
- The Perils of Losing Mitteleuropa, Realclearworld, September 22, 2009m https://www.realclearworld.com/
- How Central Europe Is Reshaping Global Politics, Der Spiegel, February 26, 2009. https://www.spiegel.de/
- U.S. Europe Policy, Version 3.0, Limes (Italian Journal of Geopolitics), Winter 2008 https://www.limesonline.com/en/europe-policy-30-new-ideas-for-an-old-continent
- Perhapsburg: What the EU Is and Isn’t, The American Interest, November/December 2008 https://www.the-american-interest.com/2008/11/01/perhapsburg/
- Obamas Hausaufgaben, Internationale Politik, December 15, 2008 https://internationalepolitik.de/de/obamas-hausaufgaben
- Gut gebrüllt, Maus! Wie Kleine Mächte ihr Gewicht in die Waagschale Werfen Können, Internationale Politik, July/August 2008 https://internationalepolitik.de/de/gut-gebruellt-maus
- Empire by Devolution: What the EU Can Learn from the Empire of Franz Joseph I, Orbis, Summer 2008 https://www.fpri.org/article/2008/07/empire-devolution-todays-eu-can-learn-franz-josef-empire/
Books
- The Godfather Doctrine: A Foreign Policy Parable, Princeton University Press, 2009 https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv7h0tms
Book Chapters and Reports
- Rebuilding America’s Alliances: Europe in Choosing to Lead: American Foreign Policy for a Disordered World, John Hay Initiative, 2015 https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28186998-choosing-to-lead
- Frontline Allies: War and Change in Central Europe, CEPA Strategic Assessment. Group, November 2015 (co-editor) https://cepa.ecms.pl/
- A Deterrence-by-Denial Strategy for the Baltic in Frontline Allies: War and Change in Central Europe, CEPA Edited Volume, November 2015 https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep06281.14?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
- Central European Security After Crimea: The Case for Strengthening NATO’s Eastern Defenses, CEPA Report No. 35, March 25, 2014 http://cepa.ecms.pl
- The Ties that Bind: U.S.-Central European Relations 25 Years After the Transition,
- CEPA Edited Volume, November 2013 (co-editor) https://cepa.ecms.pl/
- The Anchorless Pivot: Where Central Europe Should Fit in America’s ‘Pacific Century” in Navigating Uncertainty: U.S.-Central European Relations 2012, CEPA Edited Volume, July 2012
- Translating Opportunity into Impact, Central Europe in the EU,2010-2020, The Polish Quarterly of International Affairs, December 2011 https://www.ceeol.com/search/article-detail?id=162648
- Building the New Normal: U.S.-Central European Relations 2010-2020, CEPA Edited Volume, April 2011 (co-editor)
- Hingepoint Allies: Bolstering U.S. Alliances with Exposed States in Central Europe, East Asia and the Middle East, CEPA Report No. 32, October 2010
- Keeping New Allies: An Assessment of U.S. Policy in Central Europe, Report of CEPA Working Group, July 2010 (co-author)
- S.-Central Europe Relations in the Age of Obama, CEPA Edited Volume, July 2009 (co-author) https://cepa.ecms.pl/
- Tipping the Scales: Why Central Europe Matters to the United States, Center for European Policy Analysis, May 2006 http://www.ncpathinktank.org/pdfs/CEPATippingtheScales.pdf