Noah Smith: China’s slowdown and the incentives for war

July 5, 2023

Whether Xi Jinping thinks a war would help shore up his legitimacy in the face of various policy failures, or whether Chinese nationalistic sentiment demands that the leadership take aggressive action, or whether China sees a closing window of opportunity for retaking Taiwan are all questions that I just don’t know the answer to.

But what I can do, at least to some extent, is think about the economic costs and benefits.


Elbridge Colby is co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, a policy initiative focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition.