Taiwan war more likely sooner rather than later

October 12, 2022

That “much faster timeline” leads many in the US national security community to consider the risks of conflict inside three or four years. Last Thursday, this newspaper reported comments from Elbridge Colby, a former senior Pentagon strategist in the Trump administration, asking: “Why are we not on a national mobilisation footing?”

Colby is not an outlier here. Just below the surface of public debate is a near-universal concern among American defence planners that Xi will not be deterred in his determination to take Taiwan sooner rather than later.

The Australian

Elbridge Colby is co-founder and principal of The Marathon Initiative, a policy initiative focused on developing strategies to prepare the United States for an era of sustained great power competition.